The Way The Bizarre Season Redefined the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still