Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
